The vision of riding March 14 wave and standing behind the future movement in major decision even though some of these decisions doesn’t fit with the history of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea found himself outside the new formed government and most important marginalized. Those who marginalized him are his own allies: March 14. Most notably Saad Hariri and Amine Gemayel. Neither of them stood with Geagea call to form a neutral government. Instead, they both struck a deal with Hizbullah and formed a government with them. Geagea been calling for the past few month that he will not join a government in which Hizbullah is a member.
He thought, at least Saad Hariri, will appreciate his stand and will refuse such government. In addition, Samir Geagea thought by raising the demands, he can bargain for a large number of LF ministers and their portfolio in the new government. To his surprise, his close ally, Mr. Saad Hariri, struck a deal with Michel Aoun, Geagea political enemy in the Christian arena.
The government was formed due to a triple understanding: Shiite-Sunite, Sunite-Christian, and Shiite-Christian. In both, Sunite-Christian and Shiite-Christian understandings, Geagea was marginalized. Not only Hariri ignored Geagea demands, he struck a double deal with Hizbullah and Michel Aoun. From their part, Hizbullah stood firm with Aoun demands and both played the political game of carrot and stick that brought Hariri to their side.
Samir Geagea miscalculated once more. He ended up in the loser corner. He didn’t read well the American-Iranian approach, the Syrian war outcome, the Saudi-Iranian approach. The policy of taking decisions on his own and forming around him a team of incapable, Samir Geagea stand alone and might see his aim of becoming president in three month evaporate. For sure, Geagea clan will say he stood alone, he stood with his own believes and didn’t bow….. In reality, Geagea doesn’t want to be marginalized and left alone standing in the corner. Not at this important juncture in the region.
Who knows, maybe the final blow might come in few month and we will see Michel Aoun as president and Saad Hariri his prime minister. Maybe then, Geagea will realize that melting the LF in March 14 and following Hariri was a major mistake.